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Travel to Cuba?

Now that Obama has lifted Travel Restrictions to Cuba, dose anyone plan to make a trip? And now that restrictions are lifted dose that mean that the Embargo is next? And.... if so, what dose the mean for the Cigar Industry in Central and South America?

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Permalink Reply by Addiction on March 8, 2010 at 8:41am

A few questions there.

As far as I understand it you can now go to Cuba if you are a Cuban American, I assume to visit relatives. You can’t pick up and go because you want a vacation. Well at not any easier than you could have previously. So I wouldn’t start booking flights just yet.

Also the bigger question is how would the opening of Cuba affect the US market? I think a lot of companies would be devastated, especially if they don’t have the capital to hold on through the 6-12 months of surge that would happen, prolly fully 40% of the current companies would go under. But after that things would level out I think.

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Permalink Reply by Blackie Blackwell on March 8, 2010 at 6:14pm

Yes I do understand it is Cuban American's now, but the door IS open. The key word is American. And you know as well as I do, that if someone wants to go and has a Overbearing Barrister, the State Department will be getting a call from the Supreme Court.

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Permalink Reply by jesse b on March 8, 2010 at 10:31am

i tend to think that the "mainstream" (for lack of a better term) blends would really feel it.especially the cuban evils twin companies- the macanudos, the cohibas, the montecristos. all the blends that people smoke because they dont know that they are missing out on so many better blends IMHO. guys who smoke only when they play golf, or the guys who lick the entire cigar before they light it (the uneducated... which let me make clear, there is nothing wrong with) I think that the boutique blends, which are really supported by "cigarentusianados" (HBD plagerism) should sustain, the only reason they do now, in an already very competitive market is due to the fact that they are supported by people who are passionate about that particular blend, and when they have a craving for that blend, only that blend will do. I know that once legal, people, including myself will try cuban blends, that alone will cause sales of current legal cigars to drop a bit, but i think we will always return to the cigars we love now, if only making room in our humidors for cubans. they will not take over our humidors, or the market, just share it. and the good stuff will weather the storm. beside, we will have to get in line behind canada and the u.s. will be recieving cuban dog rockets for years to come. now someone is probably going to type that there are a million cuban threads on here and it has been discussed a billion time, then give you a link to the other topics, but i have never really added my two cents about the embargo, today seemed like a good day, so there ya go.

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Permalink Reply by Blackie Blackwell on March 8, 2010 at 6:28pm

jesse b said, "cuban dog rockets" LMAO

Yes, I do think it would put a hurt on Central and South America Cigars for a time, but you have to look at all the US money that Cuba has missed out on over the last 40 years. I think that CC's will be so cheep once (and if) the Embargo is lifted that it just could put some of the Central and South America Cigars companies out of business.

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Permalink Reply by Addiction on March 9, 2010 at 8:36am

I think that for 12-18 months Cuban cigars (CCs) would rule the roost. The novelty would be enough for a lot of people to consume a lot of them. While this is happening I think there are certainly people who would suffer. I think people like RP are an excellent example of a company at risk. They don’t own any fields and as I understand it they don’t employ rollers, other people roll for them. Makes it tough to control your internal costs that way. Company’s in that kind of position will be most at risk.

Some of the smaller makers will disappear, nothing to be done about it.

Also look around the world, CCs for the most part don’t compete on price. The compete on the experience. Right now, because I smoke only CCs I can pretty much guarantee that my average cigar is much cheaper than RPs, Pdarons, Tats, etc. However once CCs are in American stores I suspect they will be the same price or more than those cigars once you add in local taxes and tariffs to get em here. Won’t matter, Cubans have a well deserved reputation and that will be enough. In fact I’d predict that Non Cubans (NCs) will get cheaper in an effort to compete. Because they really won’t have a choice.

After 12-18 months the market will normalize however. Because to get the best out of CCs you have to work much, much harder than you do with NCs. Its possible to get plugged Cubans. Cubans have not been as aged as NCs have typically so you can get green ones. At some point us average lazy Americans will simply go back to the easy things we prefer.

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Permalink Reply by Addiction on March 9, 2010 at 8:18am

Hmmm, lots of things to respond to. I’ll try to separate my opinion from fact. Let’s start with the Jessie B makes, that mainstream companies will suffer and boutiques will be fine. Lets first just make the huge assumption that other than the embargo all the trademark issues get resolved.

My opinion is the average American smoker doesn’t know much about cigars. They are at a bachelor party, or on the golf course or at a business dinner and order cigars to stunt, or because their father did. They barely know how to cut or light the damn things, but you couldn’t tell them that. So when this guy walks in cigar shop or the pro shop or where ever he gets his cigars and he hears that real honest to goodness Cubans are available what do you think he’s going to do: Order his regular Macanudo or belly up for what is reportedly the best cigar in the world? People that buy cigars to have one hanging from their mouth in a wedding picture will certainly buy Cubans, and pretty much only Cubans. Is there a bigger status symbol than a Cuban cigar?

I think between these guys and the guys who come into the store every couple of weeks for 2-3 cigars like my neighbor that everything on the shelves is in trouble. I mean the General and Altadis brands that mimic Cubans like Montecristo, RyJ, Cohiba, etc are certainly in trouble. But there are also a lot of boutique cigars like RP, Tat, Don Pepin, etc that are supported by people who will certainly try some Cubans if they can get them around the corner at a guy they trust. It doesn’t matter how much you love Tats, I’m pretty sure that statement is true. And that means that everyone of those vendors will see their revenues go from X to some percentage of X, which will run some of them out of business. I mean if your budget is $100 a month in cigars, you won’t start spending $120 a month, you’ll spend the same amount you previously did and simply buy fewer of the things you used to buy. And certainly all these great value brands will end up taking it in the shorts.

As far as the US receiving dog rockets you do know that currently its estimated that between 65% and 85% of the Cubans sold worldwide are sold to Americans? Why would you believe that all of a sudden we would get the shitty ones? All this does is give Cubatobacco and Altadis the ability to charge us more for the same thing we already get, it would be silly to assume that a multibillion dollar corporation is going to fuck up a way to make more money.

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Permalink Reply by Blackie Blackwell on March 9, 2010 at 8:38am

Well put.

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Permalink Reply by Eric The Flippin Amazing on March 8, 2010 at 11:31am

I think more overseas companies that currently sale Cuban cigars to Americans would be hurt a lot more than companies here.

All that business would all but vanish overnight.

I also think it would take a while for Cubans (cigars) to really make a spread across the country. There are still quite a few people that only purchase at B&M's - and that means they are getting their sticks only when shipments come in. How long would those business relationships take to open up, and then get orders actually in?

It's not like Cuba is holding on to all of their inventory for the US to open up. They sell them to the rest of the world.

Oh......... and a lot of the stigma would finally be banished and we'd find that we aren't nearly as impressed with the taste, construction, or price, of a CC once it was legal. Just my NSHO though.

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Permalink Reply by Addiction on March 9, 2010 at 8:37am

Last point. Its practically guaranteed that if there are Cubans in American stores that the sources I use for CCs now would be cheaper than the American stores simply because they already have the inventory and they don’t have to charge you the antismoking taxes we have here. So why would I stop making my bulk purchases from those sources?

For me, if I hadn’t tried most CCs, I’d buy singles locally and buy bulk online.

Also as far as inventory again its estimated 65% to 85% of their cigars are sold to us, either here or abroad.

As far as stigma I think if you look you would find that prices of CCs are typically are about the same price, or cheaper, than premium NCs. The taste, in my opinion, far exceeds what you get out of NCs. Construction I’d say that typically NCs are better constructed than CCs.

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Permalink Reply by jesse b on March 9, 2010 at 10:55am

Just to clear up, the price of CC's is much more than most (most, not all) NC's, DC's and the like. the cheapest box price for a box of LEGITIMATE cohibas with a ring gauge exceding 46, is 480 bucks. As i said, all the companies will feel it, but i think i represent a lot of avid cigar smokers, (the real ones, not the wedding, golf, and bachelor party crew), -when i decide to buy a box of something, it will still be a box of nub habanos, or LFD's, etc., for under $200. I could never shell out the same amount i spend on my truck payment every month, on something that i dont feel is worth all that extra doe. the same way that the padron 80 yr is a great smoke, i havnt bought one in over a year, and that is because i am just as happy smoking somethin a third of the price.

as for what the u.s. recieves in quality, am refering to what we directly import from cuba, what people order from the swiss, and spain will continue to be the best, because they get cubas best, what we import directly from cuba will not be the same quality as said countries. spain has always gotten the best CC's and when we finally lift the embargo, we are not going to cut the line. i may have exagerated by using the term dog rocket, but we will not be getting the cream of there crop, by any means. (not that will really matter to the lawyer who wants to have a fresh box of cubans sitting at the end of his desk.

to sum up my point -i think that the people who are going to flock to cubans, when legal, are not the people who buy, pepin, nub, alec bradley, oliva, etc., they dont care bout the cigar, they care about the band.

i will say that i have not smoked many cubans, just a couple cohibas, that the uninformed guy( who very generously gifted them to me) only paid 250 for a box of cohiba siglo VI. which any informed smoker knows, at 250 bucks, are most certainly counterfit. this being said, it is not totally fair of me to say that CC's are not worth there hefty price tag to everyone, but i do know many, more affordable cigars, that are worth theres to me.